Why do most startups fail to find product market fit? 
![beware_solutions_seeking_problems](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/2rGuWsynYvglJNeJeWcQoz/b11da185061ef24f957efe1f9683d4f8/beware_solutions_seeking_problems.png)

Because our [confirmation bias](https://mannhowie.com/cognitive-bias) creates tunnel vision towards our existing solutions. Instead we should frame our focus on solving the user’s struggle.

Here are 5 questions you can ask in user interviews to validate if your startup has found product market fit.

Imagine we are a startup building solutions for mortgage brokers.

## 1. What progress are you trying to make in X?
__*Example:*__
__Q.__ What progress are you trying to make in finalising loan applications?

__A.__ I’m looking for my team to close more loans and shorten the bank approval times.

## 2. What is your biggest struggle when trying to make progress in X?
__*Example:*__
__Q.__ What is your biggest struggle in getting bank approvals completed on time?

__A.__ Document gathering with our customers. A single important lost or incomplete document can slow the whole process down and cause frustration amongst both lenders and borrowers, both of whom are our customers.

## 3. Tell me about the last time you encountered this struggle?
*__Example__*
__Q.__ Tell me about the last time you encountered this struggle? (create a timeline of the event as if you were in their shoes)

__A.__ Last month one of our new starters had a backlog of 10 applications with one of our newer lenders. An applicant customer did not submit a key piece of information that the new lender required but this only came to light a couple of weeks after the applicant had already submitted all the documents we asked. The lender was frustrated that we missed the information (as they said they had asked us for this before) and the applicant was livid as they had already terminated their rental lease.

## 4. What solutions have you previously tried?
__Example:__
__Q.__ What solutions have you previously tried to avoid or manage this struggle?

__A.__ We’ve used shared cloud storage solutions like Google Drive and Dropbox, onboarding checklists to make sure we don’t miss things and our CRM tool to keep track of emails.

## 5. What didn’t you love about those solutions?
__Example:__
__Q.__ What don’t you love about those solutions you’ve previously tried?

__A.__ Some of the tools create more work for our team in managing the document workflow and version control, we still have to review all the documents to make sure they are complete. As a result we still rely heavily on email to follow-up and confirm next steps with both lenders and customers but then it’s easy for us to miss things and drown in emails.

## Bad User Interview Questions
User interviews to find product market fit should be framed around the user’s struggle and not solution ideas. 

Bad user interview questions include:
- What ideal solution would you like to solve your struggle? ❌
- Do you have any feedback on our solution? ❌
- Would you use this solution if we offered it? ❌
- What do you think we could do to improve your process? ❌
- Do you know anyone else in your company who would use our solution? ❌

## User Interview Insights
Following the insights from our 5 user interview questions we are now better able to frame the struggle for our mortgage broker manager as:

> “Communicating between lenders and customers the missing information needed to complete a loan application”

Solutions we can now explore to solve the problem could include:
- Assignees for onboarding docs (whose court is it in now) 💡
- Automatic email reminders of incomplete docs 💡
- Auto-logging emails to capture a digital chat history 💡
- Identify which docs have not been updated in a while 💡

Framing the challenge around the user struggle allows us to continue iterating on solutions to help users make progress instead of being fully invested into one solution. 

⚠️ Beware solutions seeking problems.


5 user interview questions to validate product market fit: 1) What progress are you trying to make?; 2) What is the hardest thing about making progress?; 3) Tell me about the last time you encountered the struggle; 4) What solutions have you previously tried? 5) What didn’t you love about those solutions?

5 Questions to Ask to Find Product Market Fit - User Interviews

Inversion is a mental model of framing a problem from an opposing objective in order to solve the original problem.
![inversion](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/61qV3DFcVLXMoW1R899hWB/db5a16bc87fc56ff29624d857bbed49f/invert_image.png)
It is a favourite trick of famous value investor Charlie Munger. He gives an [example of how the inversion process](https://youtu.be/_uacTl8Lv_U) helped him in his early career become a better meteorologist:

> “When I was a meteorologist in World War II, they told me how to draw weather maps and predict the weather. What I was actually doing was clearing pilots to take flights. 
> 
> I just reversed the problem. I inverted, __I said:__ __suppose I want to kill a lot of pilots. What would be the easy way to do it__? And I soon concluded that the only easy way to do it was to get the planes into icing [conditions they] couldn’t handle or to get the pilot into a place where he’d run out of fuel before he could safely land. 
> 
> So I made up my mind I was going to stay miles away from killing pilots by either icing or getting them sucked into conditions where they couldn’t land. I think that helped me be a better meteorologist in World War II. I just reversed the problem.
> 
> Algebra works the same way. Human beings should do the same thing in their ordinary walks of life. Just constantly invert. You don’t think about what you want. You think about what you want to avoid. When you think about what you want to avoid, you also think about what you want. And you just go back and forth all the time.”

This article looks at how others have used the inversion process to innovate big ideas and new solutions in both life and growing start-ups.

## Productivity
In solving the problem of decluttering one’s life, Marie Kondo frames the challenge of effective tidying __not as what we want to get rid of__, but instead __choosing what we want to keep__.

The big idea of the [KonMari Method](https://konmari.com/what-is-konmari-method/) is to keep things that spark joy: “Does this spark joy? If it does, keep it. If not, dispose of it.” 

By reframing the problem she was able to develop her tidying techniques as “involving only two essential actions: discarding and deciding where to store things.”

## Product Innovation
In solving the problem of product innovation, Bob Moesta and the late Clay Christenson frame the question __not as what new features do customers want__, but instead understand __what struggles they experience with their current solution__. 

The big idea behind their innovative [Jobs To Be Done (JTBD) framework](http://jobstobedone.org/) is understanding the struggles a customer faces in making progress in their lives and innovating around those struggles.

By reframing the problem in understanding the struggle, Bob Moesta innovated his JTBD framework to look at “four forces of progress” where progress only occurs when:

> (__Push__ of the current struggle + __Pull__ of the new solution) > (__Habit__ of the old solution + __Anxiety__ of the new solution).

## Project Management
In solving the problem of delivering meaningful work on time and on spec, Ryan Singer from Basecamp frames the challenge __not as how long will it take to execute__, but instead __how much time do we want to spend__. 

The big idea of [Shape Up](https://basecamp.com/shapeup) is to focus less on estimates and more on appetite in order to narrow down problems and design outlines of solutions that fit within constraints of appetite.

By reframing the problem based on appetite, Basecamp’s Shape Up techniques focus on setting bounded solutions using fat marker sketches and addressing risks and rabbit holes early on. All the techniques are designed to set guardrails based on appetite to de-risk projects from derailing or growing in scope.


How the inversion process helps frame innovative solutions: Spark Joy, Jobs To Be Done, Design Shaping.

How to Approach Hard Problems - Invert, Always Invert

Alibaba operates three of the largest digital platforms in China: e-commerce, cloud and payments. We estimate Alibaba Group (BABA:NYSE 9988:HKG) to be valued at up to US$900 billion based on a Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) valuation of its various operating segments:

#### Alibaba Group SOTP Valuation (2021)
![alibaba sotp](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/5JX9uAgNOkj85xN3eJWyA8/16003aacd7bc9972fb8da8e3a55152a6/alibaba_sotp.png)

This article analyses Alibaba’s two main operating segments that represent up to 88% of the group valuation (Taobao/ Tmall and Alibaba Cloud) and shows how you can formulate your own valuation and thesis. To learn the fundamentals of valuing any technology company refer to [this article with a case study of how to value YouTube](https://mannhowie.com/youtube-valuation). 

__Key Sections:__
1. [China E-Commerce Market Share](#industry)
2. [Taobao/ Tmall Valuation](#taobao)
3. [Alibaba Cloud Valuation](#cloud)

## <a name="industry"></a>1. China E-Commerce Market Share
China dominates global online spending. Over 57% of total global online spend happens in China with an estimated +1 billion online shoppers spending over US$2.8 trillion annually. Online spending in China alone is more than 70% more than the next 10 countries combined.

#### Global E-Commerce Spend by Country (2021 Forecast) & China E-Commerce Market Share by Company (2020 Actual)
![global ecommerce](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/5RpP7NWgAWsBH0A4nt048d/f2e7b2c21f59148f2c90ad8d99d618e0/global_ecommerce.png)

China is likely to continue to dominate global online spending the next decade and beyond. Relative to the United States, China has 5x the online shopping population and is still only at 20% of US GDP and Income per capita. Across e-commerce there are two economies: China and the Rest of the World.

Within China, e-commerce is dominated by three players: Alibaba, JD.com and Pinduoduo. Alibaba’s annual Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) across its two platforms Taobao and Tmall in China alone is more than all annual online spend across the US, UK and Japan combined. 

#### China E-Commerce Major Players
![china ecommerce table](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/2vOtxucZPBnNJvlZH9KklU/c8ed8fe3cda225faf94169a6df37080a/china_ecommerce_table.png)
Across the three major Chinese players Alibaba maintains its dominant position. However newcomer pinduoduo has grown considerable share in a very short period focusing on a new trend in e-commerce in China, lower basket value social commerce.

## <a name="taobao"></a>2. Taobao / Tmall Valuation
Alibaba’s largest and most profitable segment is its e-commerce marketplace platform in China known as Taobao and Tmall. We value this segment at RMB 4 trillion (US$ 624 billion) representing 80% of the entire valuation of Alibaba.

### What is Taobao and Tmall?
With over 811 million active annual customers, Taobao is effectively the internet platform for e-commerce in China. Nearly all merchants and businesses that sell to Chinese consumers have an online store on Taobao. 

There are two main platforms within the one Taobao mobile and web app: Taobao and Tmall with a total GMV split 50/50:

- __Taobao__ is a marketplace platform where any merchant, person or small business can set up an online store and sell to the Chinese population.

- __Tmall__ is a B2C platform reserved for brand companies where they can set up their own dedicated stores. Most international brands selling into China will transact through their Tmall stores vs their own online shops.

#### Taobao vs Tmall
![taobao vs tmall](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/4QhVDL6MlaqeWzoag1v54z/9ee6f6d521faa305e273bfd0f4407907/taobao_vs_tmall.png)

Alibaba’s e-commerce business model is marketplace-based and facilitates transactions between buyers and sellers. Unlike Amazon and JD.com, Alibaba does not purchase and resell inventory nor does it own or operate its own fulfilment and distribution centres. It is the sellers responsibility for organising delivery to the buyer either direct or via Alibaba’s network of 3rd party logistics providers (via its global Cainiao logistics business).

### How does Taobao Tmall generate revenue?
Ads and commissions:

- __Ads (70% of e-commerce revenue)__: merchants buy keywords and display ads on Taobao and Tmall to attract traffic and purchases to their stores. Ad monetization represents 2-3% of GMV transacted through the platform. Alibaba’s high margin ad revenue model is similar to Google’s cash cow Search business.

- __Commissions (30% of e-commerce revenue)__: merchants pay commissions on transactions through the Tmall network as part of hosting their stores on the largest e-commerce platform in the world. Commission monetization represents ~1% of GMV.

### What is the growth thesis for Alibaba China E-Commerce?
The e-commerce market in China is now highly mature with over 50% of retail sales done online and Alibaba maintaining the dominant share. Having been the dominant e-commerce platform in China for the last decade we expect overall growth to slow. 

Having said that, we still expect Alibaba to remain the dominant e-commerce platform in China and expect Alibaba’s annual GMV to grow another 50% over the next decade and ad monetization to increase from ~3% to +3.5%.

We can represent these assumptions as key operating metrics to arrive at a forecast annual revenue by the end of 2030 of RMB 521bn (US$82 bn), up from ~RMB 300bn (US$47bn) ending 2020.

#### Alibaba China Retail Marketplace Revenue Model (RMB)
![alibaba retail revenue model](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/7AgIVJxBlV9K6uenKzyOX9/af5ab81611f9c3a6cba49f4a7b23d585/alibaba_retail_revenue_model.png)

### China Retail Marketplace DCF Valuation
We arrive at our RMB 4 trillion ($USD 624 bn) valuation for Alibaba’s China e-commerce business applying the following key assumptions:
- __EBITA margins__: remain stable at 72% given the high margin operating model of its ad ad and commission businesses. We expect Alibaba’s other segments to operate at break-even largely to support its high margin e-commerce segment (e.g. Cainiao logistics) 
- __Tax rate__: long term effective tax rate of 20% (China based)
- __Stock Based Compensation__: while non-cash we treat this as an expense as it’s largely a substitute for compensating staff. We expect SBC to remain at 25% of total revenue going forward to attract key talent
- __Reinvestment (Net Capex)__: assume a capital-light sales to capital ratio of 1.5 (in line with Alibaba historical and compares to 1.9 for Alphabet) meaning for every one dollar of incremental annual revenue growth, Alibaba will reinvest 66% back into the business for future growth
- __Discount rate__: assume 8% discount rate, low by historical standards but higher now given subdued global interest rates
- __Long term growth rate__: 3.5% above global GDP long term GDP growth of 2-3% as China is still expected to grow faster than the rest of the world for the next decade

#### Alibaba China Retail Marketplace DCF Model (RMB millions)
![alibaba retail dcf](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/3em6HkDrD1MyZwUDTEdslh/e15b1815727f85c2aadc60bb3221838d/alibaba_retail_dcf.png)

## <a name="cloud"></a>3. Alibaba Cloud Valuation
Alibaba’s second most valuable operating segment is its cloud computing business Alibaba Cloud. We conservatively value this segment at RMB 390 billion (~US$60 billion) on the basis it continues to dominate the Chinese market but will face stiff competition globally particularly given political concerns in western economies around hosting of data by Chinese domiciled companies.

### What is Alibaba Cloud?
Alibaba Cloud is the 4th largest cloud computing provider globally and the largest in the Asia Pacific with +40% share in China. It sells cloud-based compute and storage infrastructure services to businesses looking to host their applications and data primarily in China (although it operates globally).

#### Global Public Cloud Infrastructure Services Spend 2020

![global cloud spend](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/77Vqh2ZPUOpbpsZ2EmAFer/5f135f4d953b45be2e4716c4d5588999/global_cloud_spend.png)

Alibaba Cloud is similar to Amazon Web Services offering similar competing offers often at even lower prices when hosted in China vs AWS. It has a clear advantage over the other hyperscale cloud providers within China given its significant existing presence in the Chinese market and wider local market support.

### Alibaba Cloud DCF Valuation
Our RMB 390 billion (US$ 60 billion) DCF valuation for Alibaba Cloud is based on the following key assumptions:
- __Revenue__: Achieve revenues similar to that of current AWS levels by 2030, largely driven by growth in the local Chinese and Asian market. Alibaba is following in the similar footsteps as AWS (~7 years behind) as both the local market leader and without competition from global hyperscale providers. However growth is expected to slow as we expect international growth to be more difficult
- __EBITA Margin__: Achieve similar EBITA margins of +30% as AWS as it reaches scale and continues to reinvest for growth
- __Tax and SBC__: Effective tax rate of 20% and lower stock based compensation expense as % of revenues vs Alibaba China Retail as lower proportion of costs represented by people
- __Reinvestment Rate__: Sales to capital ratio of 1.5 continuing to reinvest 66% of net revenue growth back into the business each year
- __Discount and growth rate__: 8% discount rate and 3.5% LT growth rate in line with Alibaba China Retail

#### Alibaba Cloud DCF Valuation (RMB millions)
![alibaba cloud dcf](//images.ctfassets.net/vwq10xzbe6iz/1yolWWSzSGMD3dC1BOLU7j/d8fa2dedd86c7bde6d2fa70393c5700c/alibaba_cloud_dcf.png)

Alibaba operates three of the largest digital platforms in China: e-commerce, cloud and payments. We estimate Alibaba (BABA:NYSE 9988:HKG) to be valued at up to US$900 billion based on a Sum Of The Parts (SOTP) valuation of its various operating segments.

Howie Mann
Startup & Investing Advice
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5 Questions to Ask to Find Product Market Fit - User Interviews

How to Approach Hard Problems - Invert, Always Invert

How Much is Alibaba Worth? US$900 billion in 2021

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About me

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5 Questions to Ask to Find Product Market Fit - User Interviews

How to Approach Hard Problems - Invert, Always Invert

How Much is Alibaba Worth? US$900 billion in 2021

Howie Mann
Startup & Investing Advice
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